Borders needs to fill 15,700 job openings by 2028

DOUG COLLIE concludes our look at future employment trends in the Borders which is facing a radical fall in its working-age population

The skills assessment from Oxfords Economics which featured recently in these columns predicts there will be more than 15,000 "job openings" across the Scottish Borders region during the next ten years, most of them arising from the thousands of people reaching retirement age between 2018 and 2028.

We have already reported on the warnings contained in the document about likely difficulties in recruiting sufficient labour, partly because the proportion of Borders residents in the 16-64 age group (working population) is set to decrease through to 2041. At the same time the local numbers of registered births has fallen consistently over the last five years.

The report explains that falling female part-time employment and male full-time employment is expected to drive the decline in total employment.

"The expected decline in employment in the Scottish Borders over the next ten years is driven entirely by losses in part-time employment. Forecasts suggest there will be 200 fewer part-time roles by 2028 with the number of full-time roles remaining broadly flat. This obscures changes in employment by gender. Female part-time employment is forecast to decline by 800 jobs over 2018-2028, offset by a rise in full-time employment of 900 jobs. Male full-time employment, by contrast, is expected to decline by 900 jobs over 2018-2028, with an increase in part-time employment of 600 jobs."

And the local manufacturing sector, already hit by hundreds of job losses over the last 30 years, is predicted to take a further hit in the immediate future.

According to the report: "Job losses are expected to be largest in manufacturing in the Scottish Borders. In contrast to this, robust employment growth in the construction sector is forecast over the period, adding nearly 400 additional jobs by 2028 and helping to offset the losses forecast in other sectors – such as the manufacturing and agriculture sectors which are forecast to decrease by 900 and 300 jobs, respectively. Most private services sectors are expected to enjoy modest growth over this period too, with their share of total employment rising from 46 per cent in 2018 to 48 per cent in 2028."

Turning to the job openings picture Oxford Economics say: "There are expected to be 15,700 job openings in the region between 2018 and 2028, driven entirely by replacement demand. Net change in employment is expected to result in 100 fewer people employed in the region over the next decade.

"Replacement demand, which captures people leaving the labour market or moving between occupations, is forecast to result in job openings for 15,800 people over the next ten years. As a consequence of this labour market churn, openings are expected across the majority of occupations, including those that are expected to see lower levels of employment in the future."

There is expected to be 8,000 fewer people (down from 68,000 to 60,000) in the working population sector by 2041.

The overall situation is described in the following terms: "As of 2016, 60 per cent of the population of the Scottish Borders, or 68,300 people, were of working age (16-64). Outside of this age range, 17 per cent were aged 0-15 (19,000 people), 14 per cent were aged between 65 and 74 (15,400 people) and the remaining ten per cent were aged 75 or older (11,800 people).

"Forecasts suggest there will be important changes to the age structure of the population of the region over the coming decades. The working age population is expected to fall from 60 per cent to 51 per cent by 2041, or 60,200 people. At the same time, the numbers aged 75+ are expected to increase by 80 per cent, a projected increase of 9,400 people; alongside a ten per cent increase in the numbers aged 65–74, a projected increase of 1,500 people. In contrast, all other age groups are expected to decline with the number of people aged 50-64 expected to decrease the most (18 per cent, or 4,800 people)."

Borders births below 1,000 for first time

EXCLUSIVE by DOUG COLLIE

The number of births registered in the Scottish Borders fell below the one thousand mark for the first time in 2017 at a time when concerns are growing over the future size of the region's workforce and its ability to cope with an expected skills shortage.

According to official figures there were 989 births and 1,298 deaths recorded last year, the fifth year in which the local "birth rate" has fallen and has failed to even match the number of deaths.

Meanwhile a report published last month by Skills Development Scotland which has yet to receive any media coverage locally warns of issues facing the drive to speed up industrial development and promote economic well-being in the Borders region.

The 50-page document concludes: "One of the main challenges facing the regional economy and labour market over the coming decade (2018-2028) is the forecast decline in the working age population (from 60 per cent to 51 per cent) and accompanying increase in people over retirement age (who are projected to comprise one-third of the total regional population by 2041). 

"This will put pressure on employers looking to recruit staff, which is likely to be further exacerbated by Brexit and the potential implications of this on potentially constraining the supply of labour from the European Union."

Here are the statistics on births and deaths in the Scottish Borders in each of the last five years.

YEAR                             BIRTHS                   DEATHS

2013                                1,138                        1,222

2014                                1,081                        1,335

2015                                1,037                        1,389

2016                                1,005                        1,277

2017                                   989                        1,298

The skills assessment produced by Oxford Economics points up several topics which will, no doubt, soon be occupying the minds of a brand new South of Scotland Enterprise Agency.

According to the report Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area shows GVA in the Scottish Borders in 2018 was £2.1bn, two per cent of total national output (£134.7bn). The Scottish Borders is the smallest of the RSA regions in Scotland in terms its share of national output. 

Pressure on households and Brexit-related uncertainty is forecast to hamper near term growth. GVA growth in the Scottish Borders is forecast to average 1.3 per cent per year between 2018 and 2028. This is below the Scotland rate of 1.7 per cent and the UK average of 1.9 per cent. Growth in the near term is expected to be more muted given the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty on business investment and the continued pressure on household incomes. 

The assessment also shows productivity in the Scottish Borders is below the Scottish average. Productivity is the measure of goods and services produced per unit of labour input. Productivity has been calculated by dividing total regional GVA by total regional employment (measured in jobs). As of 2018, productivity in the Scottish Borders was £40,000, lower than the national average of £47,300. 

Total regional employment (measured as the number of jobs) is estimated to be 52,800 in 2018, an increase of 0.1 per cent on 2017. Economic activity in the Scottish Borders is more concentrated in agriculture than the Scottish average. The largest sectors by employment  are wholesale and retail, human health and social work, and manufacturing, accounting for 16 per cent, 15 per cent and 11 per cent of total regional employment respectively. After manufacturing, agriculture has nearly a 10% share of employment (9.7%) in contrast to the national average of 2%, showing the concentration of this sector within the region.

The report warns: "Employment performance in the Scottish Borders is forecast to lag behind the Scottish average over the next decade. Overall, regional employment has decreased since 2006, driven largely by the decline in the manufacturing sector. There have, however, been other factors driving these decreases, including the recession, and a decline of the public administration and defence sector. Employment is expected to decline gradually, losing a total of 200 jobs between 2018 and 2028, whilst both Scotland and the UK experience growth.

"The expected contraction in employment over the next ten years is underpinned by declines in the manufacturing, agriculture and public administration and defence sectors. There are expected to be 1,400 combined job losses across these three sectors. Most of these losses (900) are expected to come in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to continue its historic decline in the Scottish Borders, as technological improvements reduce the need for labour. Manufacturing’s share of total employment is expected to fall from 11 per cent in 2018 to 9 per cent in 2028."

NEXT: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHICS AND LIKELY JOB OPPORTUNITIES

Facing Three Ways at Once!

EWAN LAMB reports on a fascinating political story in Not Just Sheep & Rugby country


The Scottish Borders and North Northumberland where much of our material for articles is generated is currently "blessed" with three Conservative MPs who serve neighbouring constituencies.

But while Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Berwick-on-Tweed), John Lamont (Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk) and David Mundell (Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale) are all members of the same political party, each of them has currently adopted a different view of the controversial Brexit withdrawal agreement. It must be somewhat confusing for some of their respective constituents.

There's certainly no doubting Mrs Trevelyan's opinion of Theresa May's arrangements for pulling out of the European Union. Within hours of the 585-page Brexit document being published Berwick's MP resigned as a Parliamentary Private Secretary in Westminster's Education Department.

In her resignation letter to the PM last Thursday Mrs Trevelyan wrote (among other things):

'It has been an honour to serve in your Government both in education and previously as PPS in the Ministry of Defence. I will continue to speak up on all those matters close to my heart around the armed forces covenant and special educational needs, to try to move policy decision forwards in the future.

'I have struggled for months to continue to give you my support on Brexit, as you nettled through the most difficult of public negotiations to find a new relationship with the EU after we have left next year. Despite my own convictions on Brexit, I have always been a pragmatist and understood there would likely be areas of mutually agreed future partnership which I would not be wholly supportive, but could live with and justify to my constituents.

'Sadly, the deal which you and your Cabinet have approved is not one which I can support. It is now clear to me that the negotiations have been built on the UK trying to appease the EU and we have allowed ourselves to be led into a deal which is unacceptable to the 17.4million voters who asked for us to step away from the EU project and become an independent coastal state in name only.

'As an MP bordering Scotland, the regulatory framework agreement for Northern Ireland is very important to me, and I cannot support the position the EU agreement takes. I believe that it poses a real threat to the stability and integrity of the Union. The indefinite backstop arrangement agreed is also unacceptable, since it leaves the UK permanently trapped in a customs union, which will restrict forever our trade prospects.'

Meanwhile, next door in Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk Mr Lamont is, according to a report in today's Scottish Daily Mail, one of several Scottish Tories seeking assurances on the Northern Ireland "arrangements" before committing one way or the other.

And Mr Lamont is quoted by The Southern Reporter as saying: “While some politicians had a knee-jerk reaction to this deal [presumably including Mrs Trevelyan], I have been carefully considering the agreement in detail before coming to a view as to whether it delivers for my constituents. Nicola Sturgeon told her MPs to vote against it before the deal was even published in what was a clearly cynical move.

“I will not be rushed or forced into reaching a position. I will not be bounced into making a decision for short-term party political reasons. As I have said all along, my priority is to ensure that we get a Brexit deal that works for the Scottish Borders, for Scotland and for the whole of the United Kingdom. “Given the lasting impact that this agreement will have on our country, it is important that we get it right.”

Mr Lamont said the Prime Minister bringing any deal to the table was a “huge achievement”, but admitted he had “a number of initial concerns” with some aspects of the agreement.

At the same time Mr Mundell, who once threatened to resign should Northern Ireland get a 'special' deal as a result of the negotiations has given Mrs May his unequivocal support.

He also rounded on Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, describing him in newspaper reports as a carpetbagger following Mr Raab's decision to throw in the towel and retreat to the back benches.

But Mr Raab told The Sunday Times: "I like David Mundell and I respect the views of all my former cabinet colleagues. It’s curious because he agreed with me in cabinet on the substance of what I was saying and I’m the one who resigned on principle.”

WASPI women stung by ban

by DOUGLAS SHEPHERD

Thousands of women in the Scottish Borders who were "cheated" out of their state pension by the UK Government's changes to retirement age have no-one to represent them after their MP refused to engage with their campaign, it has been claimed.

Activists in the Scottish Borders WASPI (Women Against State Pension Inequality) branch were also banned from attending a pensions advice fair in Kelso this week, an event organised and promoted by local Tory MP John Lamont. Some of the women affected by the 'cruel' changes say the ban was imposed on them because he considers their movement to be too political.

The MP has told constituents who raised the issue with him that they should ask the Scottish Government to make good their political losses even though the issue is not devolved to Holyrood.

The Borders WASPI women had originally wanted to set up a stall at Mr Lamont's pensions fair but were told the venue was fully booked. Instead they 'picketed' the event at Kelso's Tait Hall yesterday (Thursday).

Now social media is awash with comments - almost entirely negative ones - aimed at Mr Lamont for allegedly failing to represent over 7,000 of his constituents.

Clair Ramage, a Scottish Borders councillor, and one of the prime movers in the Borders WASPI's efforts to secure justice, wrote on Facebook: "MP John Lamont would not allow WASPI ladies into his “Pensioners Fair” today in Kelso nor would he come out to speak to us. That is over 7000 women in his constituency that he is refusing to engage with. All we wanted to do was advise ladies, born in the 50s, how to write letters of complaint to the Department of Work and Pensions. So we were left outside to get our message across." 

Not Just Sheep & Rugby collated other comments which followed Mr Lamont's ban on the women. Here is a selection:

Audrey Graham - Well done everyone, I hope you're forwarding that on to the press. It's total discrimination to not let the women in or hear their views.

Elizabeth Thewlis Well there’s a clear example how this Tory MP omits working for all the constituents of the area. To not meet - in fact to refuse to meet is a dereliction of duty.

Johnny Rudkin what a waste of time John Lamont is holding a pensioners fair and not letting in pensioners, Hope all the people that voted for [him] are ashamed of themselves. John Lamont couldn't care less for the seven thousand women that are left without a fair pension.

Derek H Campbell Should be front page news in the Southern [Reporter].  It won’t be though.

Ewan Mutch As a man who claimed he was hosting it it's very unusual he didn't grab his usual photo opportunity as "Host" to promote himself.

Margaret Paterson I really hope that the WASPI women's organiser contacts the Berwickshire News and the Southern Reporter ,John Lamont is not a fit person to be an MP and a vote of No Confidence should be lodged against him .Just shows how unfit he is as an MP that he doesn't want to help these ladies.

Maureen Anton The WASPI women asked to be included but John Lamont told them it was too political! He had 2 banners outside Tait Hall Kelso, LAMONT House Of Commons. Is that not political???

Beth Barclay Why anyone votes for this rude, arrogant man is beyond me. Together with two other WASPI ladies I visited him at our local “surgery” and he was very rude to us. We were all women in our sixties who have worked for most of our lives and he reduced one of them to tears with his attitude. Unbelievably, he tried to blame the Scottish Government and said that it was up to them to provide extra monies etc.  After all the support that Iain Blackford and Mhairi Black have given us... I don’t think so, John!

There was comment too from Calum Kerr, the former SNP MP for the constituency, defeated by Mr Lamont at the 2017 General Election.

Mr Kerr said: "Well done everyone for being there to highlight this injustice. It's an absolute disgrace, and the refusal to allow entry or to support the WASPI campaign tells you all you need to know about the Tory attitude towards pensioners.  Yeah so annoying when they do that, picking the bit they like. It's why some politicians just repeat the same thing over and over in slightly different ways. Not something I was great at, as I always tried to answer questions..."

Sharp rise in Roxburgh and Berwickshire debt cases

EXCLUSIVE by DOUG COLLIE

The number of new clients with debt issues who sought help from one of the Scottish Borders citizens' advice bureaux shot up by more than 50 per cent in 2017/18 with the amount owed by people with money problems spiralling by 107 per cent.year on year.

Figures contained in the annual report of Roxburgh & Berwickshire Citizens' Advice Bureau show 119 individuals brought debt problems to the organisation's four advice centres in Hawick, Kelso, Duns, Eyemouth and an outreach facility in Jedburgh. In 2016/17 the comparable total was 77 new cases resulting in a 54 per cent increase over 12 months.

Over the two financial years the total debt involved in new referrals rose hugely from £1,151,809 to £2,387,510. The respective average debts per new case were £14,958 in 2016/17 and £20,063 in 2017/18.

The bureaux in the Scottish Borders - Roxburgh & Berwickshire CAB together with Central Borders CAB and Peebles & District CAB - provide the benefits advice service on behalf of Scottish Borders Council after successfully bidding for the work.

In Roxburgh & Berwickshire's case the annual report shows the 40 volunteers together with paid staff achieved financial gains for clients totalling £1,438,797.

Scotland's network of 60 CABs dealt with 133,593 debt cases in 2017/18 and supplied advice on benefits on 332,298 occasions. Overall the Scottish bureaux helped their clients gain £138 million.

The latest data from Roxburgh & Berwickshire coincides with a newly announced initiative by CAB Scotland to try to bring greater financial stability to those individuals and families who are grappling with money issues.

Citizens Advice advisers are to provide a new service aimed at giving Scots a ‘financial health check’ to see if they are eligible for additional support that they may not know about.

The new service is funded by £3.3 million from the Scottish Government over the next two years, and was launched in Dumfries last week.

Initially the service will be available by telephone (0800 085 7145), but CABs across Scotland will also be offering a face-to-face version by January 2019.

The financial health check involves a short confidential interview with a CAB adviser and is available free to anyone who asks for it, or any CAB client whose adviser feels might benefit from it.

Launching the service Citizens Advice Scotland Chief Executive Derek Mitchell said:“Research has shown that around half a million Scots are not claiming all the support they are entitled to. That means families are struggling to heat their homes or put food on the table while missing out on financial assistance that could make a crucial difference. This service is all about identifying those people and linking them up with the grants, benefits or support that they need.

“The CAB service already does work every day to help people who are struggling, but it is an ongoing battle to make sure we are reaching all the people who need this support, so the funding we have received for this new service is extremely welcome and will allow us to offer this crucial help to thousands more people who could benefit from it.”

Academics pan Melrose-based DNA business

by EWAN LAMB

A research paper assembled by a group of  geneticists and a genealogist claims a Scottish Borders company involved in DNA ancestry testing made misleading claims, manipulated the media and issued threats of legal action when challenged.

BritainsDNA, the brand name of The Moffat Partnership, based in Melrose, attracted widespread press, TV and radio coverage after claiming it had traced the ancestral lineage of some of its clients back to Biblical times. A number were said to be related to the Queen of Sheba.

Interviews conducted with author Alistair Moffat, a director of the partnership, and stories generated by the company also touched on alleged links between members of the Royal Family and their ancestors in India. There were claims too about the DNA of celebrities including actor Tom Conti (said to be a relative of Napoleon Bonaparte) and rugby great Gareth Edwards. Clients of Britains DNA were charged between £160 and £200 depending on the type of DNA test they ordered.

A number of leading authorities in the field of genetics and genealogy quickly challenged the material being produced by the so-called BritainsDNA project on the basis of a lack of scientific evidence.

But when the findings which formed the basis of many press articles were called into question the directors of the company warned there would be legal proceedings unless allegations and statements were withdrawn.The challengers from University College London refused to back down.

Now, in a 26-page academic thesis published on the Swiss-based Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) website genealogist Debbie Kennett, and geneticists Adrian Timpson, David Balding and Mark Thomas trace "the rise and fall of BritainsDNA". They call it "A Tale of Misleading Claims, Media Manipulation and Threats to Academic Freedom".

The paper tells how Mr Moffat was interviewed by James Naughtie three times on the BBC’s flagship Today programme "In all these interviews, he was given the opportunity to promote his business and his questionable claims passed without challenge", claim the authors of the document.

In a section of the paper entitled Countering the Bad Science it states: "David Balding and Mark Thomas independently submitted complaints to the BBC about Alistair Moffat’s interview on the Today programme. The BBC responded that it was normal to interview “commercial firms about their products” but failed to acknowledge the point that the commercial aspect was not declared and was disguised as an academic “project”.

"They justified the interview on the grounds that the story had been covered in The Telegraph and that it was “interesting”. Mr Balding sent multiple follow up e-mails and the complaint was eventually investigated by the BBC’s Editorial Complaints Unit. He was advised in February 2014 that his complaint had been upheld on grounds of both accuracy and product prominence and a statement was published on the BBC website.

The paper concludes: "This case study has shown how a direct-to-consumer genetic ancestry testing company benefitted from a disproportionate amount of media coverage in the UK. It highlights the ease with which someone with high-profile media contacts was able to manipulate the media to promote his commercial interests disguised as a science “project”. There was a failure to question dubious press releases and programme ideas, or get feedback from experts working in the field before publishing an article or going ahead with a programme."

Mr Moffat was Rector of St Andrews University while at the same time playing a key role in the operations at BritainsDNA.

According to the four scientists: "Academics and broadcasters need to ensure that they separate their academic roles from their commercial interests and make any conflicts of interest (even if only perceived) clear. Universities have a duty to ensure that their staff do not misuse their academic positions to advance their personal and financial interests. Threats of legal action can have a pernicious impact on academic freedom. 

"The poor behaviour of BritainsDNA risked damage to the public perception of the fields of genetic history and genetic genealogy. The public were given a false idea of what they can learn from a genetic test and the media failed to provide balance by writing about the legitimate uses of DNA testing for genealogy."

The report's authors  say they believe their detailed case study is a rare example in the literature of how science can be distorted for commercial gain by influential, well connected figures in society. The case demonstrates the necessity but also the risks of critically engaging with developments of this kind.

They add: "We hope that it will be of interest to historians and sociologists of science, that educators, practitioners and researchers in science communication will learn from our experience and that this case study can be used to inform training and education programmes. Most importantly, we hope that other scientists will be encouraged by our experience and will not be afraid to engage with the media to challenge misreporting."

FOOTNOTE: - The Moffat Partnership was acquired by Nottingham-based Source Bioscience Ltd. and changed its name to Source Bioscience Scotland Ltd. But after a relatively short time the new management stopped offering DNA tests linked to genetic ancestry.

Icelandic evidence has melted away!

EXCLUSIVE by DOUG COLLIE

Scottish Borders Council which invested £172 million in four Icelandic banks by making 94 separate deposits between 2006 and 2008 claims it can now only provide details of four of the transactions and has no information about the specialists who advised it on its Icelandic investment strategy.

Freedom of Information requester Joel Benjamin had asked SBC for specific details of the local authority's dealings with the insolvent Icelandic banking sector ten years after £10 million of Borders taxpayers' cash was trapped in two of the failed financial institutions.

Mr Benjamin's five-point FOI question included a request for a spreadsheet showing details of each investment including the amounts deposited, the interest earned and the terms under which the transactions were made.

Not Just Sheep & Rugby has discovered that a spreadsheet provided by SBC in April 2010 as part of FOI request numbered 3667 disclosed the full extent of the financial gamble with public money.

The 94 "deals" averaging £1.82 million involved business with four separate banks based in the "land of ice and fire" - Landsbanki, Heritable, Glitnir and Singer. Each transaction has its own unique reference number and showed when each cash sum was deposited and withdrawn.

But in responding to Mr Benjamin SBC tells him about an attached spreadsheet which has only four entries. According to the council "the only information available is for the funds held at time of bank crisis".

The four deals mentioned are two with Landsbanki worth £3 million and £2 million and two with Heritable for £4 million and £1 million. This represents the £10 million 'loss' incurred in October 2008 when both banks collapsed. There is no reference number given for these transactions.

It took two years and two separate court actions in Iceland before most of the cash was recovered while the outstanding losses were sold for a fraction of their true value. SBC was forced to seek permission from the Scottish Government to borrow over £1 million to cover the gap in its finances.

So it seems the spreadsheet prepared and released in 2010 has either been 'shredded' or has not been provided to Mr Benjamin.

He went on to ask the council for the name of the institution which advised the authority on its Icelandic investment strategy.

SBC claims: "We do not hold any information in relation to this".

However, immediately after the Icelandic debacle it was confirmed the external treasury advisers to the council had been a firm called Butlers whose staff members had also advised many other public bodies about Icelandic deposits.

A report which went to councillors in 2010 and entitled Treasury Management Strategy - the document is still available online - states at page 11: "The council uses Butlers as its external treasury management consultants. The range of services includes generic investment advice on interest rates, timing and investment instruments".

Finally Mr Benjamin asked for the ledger payment codes which detail the transfer of the funds from the council's accounts to the Iceland banks.

But yet again SBC replies: "We do not hold any information in relation to this". It would appear the payment details covering the £172 million worth of transactions between Newtown St Boswells and Reykjavik no longer exist.