EXCLUSIVE by DOUG COLLIE
The Scottish Borders experienced a record low number of births and a record high number of deaths in 2018, according to a new set of demographic statistics from National Records of Scotland. However, net inward migration is expected to result in a two per cent increase in the region's current population by 2026.
Births registered locally in 2018 totalled 984 (533 male and 451 female), even lower than the 2017 all time low figure of 989. Numbers of 'new arrivals' have slumped over the last ten years from a total of 1,138 in 2008 while there were 1,038 births back in 1998.
The gap between births and recorded deaths (1,472) resulted in a net 'natural' population loss of 488 last year. Total deaths were up by 13.4% on the 2017 figure of 1,298. The statistics for the years 2008 and 1998 were 1,265 and 1,335 respectively.
Life expectancy for Borders residents is above the Scottish average although the statistic for Borders females has dropped slightly. Between 2014-16 expectancy stood at 82.6 years but that was reduced to 82.4 years in 2015-17. However, the figure represents a considerable improvement on that recorded for 2001-03 (79.8 years).
So far as males are concerned the expectancy figure for 2015-17 was 79 years, a small increase from 78.6 years in 2014-2016 and well above the 75.4 years logged in 2001-03.
It is clear from the tables contained in the Scottish Borders demographic profile that an influx of 'new' people from outwith the region has been responsible for a slow but steady population increase over recent times. In general terms the number of incomers has been exceeding the number of leavers each year by between 650 and 850.
The numbers for migration show 4,530 individuals came to the Borders in 2017/18 while 3,850 left the region. In 2016/17 there were 4,460 arrivals and 3,620 departures. Those totals have not changed much since 2001-02 when there was a net gain of 850 people (4,880 in and 4,030 out).
The overall population of the Scottish Borders Council area which totalled 114,530 in 2016 is forecast to rise to 116,777 by the year 2026 despite a sizeable natural loss. That natural loss over the ten years is predicted to be 2,509 as the annual number of deaths continues to exceed the total of births.
But net inward migration from other areas is expected to be 4,769 representing a 4.2% upward shift and resulting in an overall population increase of two per cent..
The burden on local health and social care services could be considerable by 2026. National Records of Scotland foresee a 19% increase in the number of over 65s within the Borders population with an even larger rise in over 75s (33.5%).
The number of households in 2018 stood at 54,413, an increase of 14.7% on 2001 (47,452). The projections indicate that by 2026 there will be 56,497 households. A 10% increase is forecast in the number of one-adult households in the Borders from 19,179 in 2016 to 21,220 in 2026.
Finally, figures relating to marriage show there were 643 weddings across the Borders region, a marginal increase on the 2017 figure of 638. Back in 2008 there were 740 weddings, and in 1998 there were 613 registered.
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