600 Scottish Borders jobs lost thanks to Covid-19

 by EWAN LAMB

A national Covid-19 'Vulnerability Index' has shown Scottish Borders to be the third most vulnerable council area in the country in terms of the impact on the local economy. And a work force assessment concludes the region will lose 600 jobs this year thanks to the pandemic.

Skills Development Scotland (SDS) has produced updated regional skills assessments for each area after studies provided the most detailed picture yet of the effect of Covid-19 is having on local labour markets across the country.

The report for Scottish Borders looks in detail at the resilience of the district to Covid-19 impacts.

It explains: "The Oxford Economics Vulnerability Index - scores above 100 mean an area is more vulnerable than the Great Britain average. Scottish Borders scored 140.3, the third most vulnerable local authority.

"Business environment contributed to Scottish Borders' vulnerability with a score of 164.5 supporting a higher share of small firms and self employment. Digital connectivity score of 180.9 suggested low working from home rates and low broadband speed. But economic diversity (89.4) contributed to Scottish Borders' resilience".

SDS says the Borders work force size in 2020 totals 47,300. The report concludes: "The work force is expected to shrink between 2019 and 2020 as a result of Covid-19 by 1.3% or 600 people".

But the skills agency predicts there will be a 'bounce back' over the next three years.

"The work force is forecast to grow between 2020 and 2023 as the labour market bounces back and growth returns." It should have increased by 2.7% or 1,300 people. However, the Borders bounce could be over by 2022 with no long-term jobs growth for the area.

Job openings in the longer term (2023-2030) will be limited with an ongoing requirement for skilled people to replace those retiring or leaving the local labour market.

SDS estimates there will be a need over that period for 11,300 individuals to fill job opportunities. But overall the increase in the size of the Borders labour force by 2030 is put at only 100 (0.1%) compared to a Scottish average increase of 1.2%.

The report's summary declares: "The forecast job losses are likely to have occurred in retail, construction and hospitality.

"Covid-19 has highlighted the importance of digital skills and this could potentially benefit Scottish Borders. The increase in the uptake of home working could enable more opportunities for those who live in rural areas if connectivity was strengthened".

The report also provides data which point to a growing demographic issue for the Borders.

In 2018 the region had a working age population of 67,900. But the statisticians are predicting a fall of 3,300 in that number by 2043 (equivalent to minus 4.8%). In the same period the Scottish working age population is set to fall by 0.2%.

The dependency rate of those of non-working age (under 16s and over 65s) compared to those of working age was 70% in 2018 - the joint highest dependency rate in the country. Scottish Borders will experience an increase to 80% by 2043. Meanwhile the current Scottish figure of 56% will rise to 60% over the same timespan.