Borders housing numbers depend on "strong growth"

by DOUGLAS SHEPHERD

Scottish Borders Council is the only local authority in south-east Scotland to rely on a 'strong growth' scenario when estimating the levels of new housebuilding in the region over the next 20 years despite the distinct possibility of an economic recession.

The other five councils - City of Edinburgh, East Lothian, West Lothian, Midlothian and Fife - have adopted a more cautious  approach, using a 'steady growth' tagline in assessing future house numbers.

By deciding on the 'strong growth' level the Scottish Borders is forecasting the development of 3,827 new homes between now and 2040, 738 more than under a 'steady growth' scenario.

The facts and figures are contained in the south-east region's third Housing Needs and Demands Assessment (HNDA) which was prepared by a project team and has now been signed off by the Scottish Government and by senior officers in each of the six councils.

A series of reports and tables linked to the HNDA explains that local authorities are required through legislation to develop a HNDA on a five-yearly cycle, providing an evidence-base for housing policy decisions in Local Housing Strategies and land allocation decisions in Development Plans.

The purpose of the HNDA is to estimate the future number of additional housing units to meet existing and future housing need and demand by housing market area, based on a range of scenarios rather than precise estimates.

Factors behind the Borders' strong growth scenario are listed in the report like this:

"More people move to Scottish Borders from Edinburgh and the Lothians, making use of the links to the City by rail, in particular to the council's Northern HMA (Housing Market Area) and parts of Central HMA. Tourists are attracted to the area with Tapestry opening in Galashiels, and a wider Masterplan relating to the town centre, with Destination Tweed continuing investment in biking facilities in the Tweed valley. Central Borders Innovation Park expands and redevelops and the expansion of Tweedbank for housing and commercial development is underway. High levels of investment lead to improved digital connectivity, opening opportunities for businesses in rural areas of the Scottish Borders, and the new railway station at Reston provides more development opportunities on the East Coast."

And these are the elements put forward for a Scottish Borders 'steady growth' situation:

"The Borders continues to see moderate levels of in-migration from Edinburgh and the Lothians, particularly in the Central and Northern HMAs. Tweedbank expansion is progressing at a steady pace. The Borders Railway feasibility study is completed, and planning has commenced to ensure delivery. New and improved business units are provided in Coldstream and Hawick."

The report makes it clear that Scottish Borders Council subsequently advised that the 'Strong Growth' scenario was most appropriate in their case.

A section of the report dedicated to social housing says: "While wider housing policy decisions will be considered in determining housing supply targets, the analysis shows differing levels of housing delivery across South-east Scotland over the last decade, with the least provision of housing in Scottish Borders, both proportionately and numerically."

So far as the condition of the existing housing stock is concerned, the report notes that around 243,000 dwellings across tenures in the region do not meet the Scottish Housing Quality Standard [SHQS], particularly impacting on the City of Edinburgh and Scottish Borders.

"SHQS non-compliance is most prevalent in owner-occupied housing in East Lothian and the City of Edinburgh; social housing in Scottish Borders; private rented housing in Fife. Significant work will be required to ensure existing properties in the social and private sectors are retrofitted to improve energy efficiency and decarbonised heat to meet new zero emissions targets."

Other interesting data: Second homes - across South East Scotland an estimated 5,320 dwellings are second homes, the highest level of these being in Fife (West & Central) with 1,893 second homes, followed by the City of Edinburgh and Scottish Borders with 1,809 and 968 respectively. However, Scottish Borders (1.6%), Fife (1.3%) and East Lothian (1.1%) are shown to have the highest percentage of second homes as a proportion of housing within area."

 And "Energy efficiency ratings - of the six local authorities, Scottish Borders has the poorest ratings at 60.7 and East Lothian at 64.5. Above average ratings are shown in West Lothian (69.4), Midlothian (66.8), the City of Edinburgh (66.7) and Fife (65.8)."

Using that 'strong growth' scenario it is estimated Scottish Borders will require 335 new homes per year between 2021 and 2025. Then the numbers fall to 134 per annum from 2026 to 2030. Between 2031 and 2035 an annual figure of 150 is shown with a total of 147 new homes required each year from 2036 to 2040. 

As reported here recently the new Scottish Borders Council Local Development Plan - including allocation of housing sites - is about to be scrutinised in an examination to be conducted by Scottish Government planning reporter Nick Smith.