Borders "workforce" shrinks by 9,000 thanks to COVID

SPECIAL FEATURE ON JOBS AND SKILL SHORTAGES

The number of people in employment in the Scottish Borders slumped by an alarming 18.8 per cent (9,300) between 2019 and 2021 as a result of the pandemic, according to the latest assessment of the region's skills needs for the immediate and long-term future. The equivalent figure for Scotland as a whole was just 2.2 per cent.

And the Skills Development Scotland (SDS) report reveals that the industries in the region with the greatest contraction of economic output between 2019 and 2021 were Accommodation and Food Service (-26.5 per cent) and Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (-21.3 per cent).

Prior to the pandemic, employment in the region decreased by 3.1 per cent from 2012 to 2019 (-1,600 people). This compares with 7.1 per cent growth across Scotland over the same period. From 2019 to 2021 the number of people employed in the region was estimated to have declined by 9,300, from 49,200 to 39,900.

These statistics will have far reaching consequences for those tasked with ensuring a regional workforce with productivity levels large enough to sustain the local economy in the face of an ever-aging population. The assessment report includes details of initiatives already being taken in a bid to guarantee a supply of skills for employers over the next ten years.

Current economic performance figures outline Borders Gross Value Added (GVA) - the measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area and an indicator of the economy’s health. In 2022, GVA was forecast to be £2,483m in the Borders, 1.6 per cent of Scotland’s output (£150,611). This share of GVA ranks the Borders in the lower third of RSA [Regional Skills Assessment] regions for GVA contribution to the Scottish economy.

Pre-pandemic, between 2012 and 2019 the region’s economic output, measured by GVA, grew by 2.1 per cent on average each year. This was a faster rate of growth than Scotland, which over the same period experienced a 1.6 per cent growth on average each year. Between 2019 and 2020, the region’s economy contracted sharply as measures were taken across Scotland and the UK to limit the spread of COVID-19.

The SDS assessment also points out: "Productivity is the measure of goods and services produced per unit of labour input. In 2022, productivity in the Borders was forecast to be £50,100. This was lower than the Scottish average of £54,100."

Figures for current employment show the following: "Total employment in the Borders (measured by people) was estimated to be 39,900 in 2022, 1.5 per cent of Scottish employment. This share of total employment ranks the Borders in the lower third of RSA regions. 

"In 2022, 27,600 people (69.2 per cent) were in full-time jobs in the Borders. This was a lower percentage share compared to Scotland where 74.6 per cent of people were in full-time employment. Part-time employment accounted for a higher percentage share of employment in the region compared to Scotland, 30.8 per cent compared to 25.4 per cent. Overall, there were 12,300 people in parttime employment in the Borders."

So far as future employment is concerned, in the mid-term (2022-2025) the number of people in employment is forecast to grow by 600 in the region. Across Scotland the number of people in employment is also forecast to increase. Whilst positive, this growth will not fully replace jobs lost in the region as a result of the pandemic.

In 2022, Human Health and Social Work was the largest employing industry in the region. This industry accounted for 9,000 people or 22.5 per cent of the workforce. Wholesale and Retail Trade was the second largest with a total of 4,700 people or 11.9 per cent of the workforce. These industries are forecast to remain the main employers in the Borders in 2025 and 2032.

The greatest employment growth is forecast in Human Health and Social Work, with 200 more people expected to be working in the industry by 2025, followed by Accommodation and Food Service and Wholesale and Retail Trade (both with 100 more people). However, not all industries in the region are forecast to grow in the mid-term. Education is forecast to have the greatest employment contraction with 100 fewer people in employment in 2025. 

Manufacturing is forecast to have a decline of 100 people over the same period. This reflects the general trend of more capital intensive and higher value-added activity in the sector, which requires less labour-intensive methods. 

From 2025 to 2032, Human Health and Social Work is forecast to have the greatest employment growth with 400 more people working in the industry. 

According to the assessment: "Growth in Human Health and Social Work is driven by Scotland’s ageing population, along with the aim to protect the provision of frontline services. Other industries forecast to grow over the long-term are Professional, Scientific and Technical (200 people), and Construction (100 people). 

"The mid-term contraction in Manufacturing is forecast to continue over the long-term as the adoption of new technologies and production methods continues and the industry produces more but with fewer workers. The industry with the greatest contraction. over the long-term is forecast to be Manufacturing (-600 people)."

The majority of "job openings" between 2022 and 2025 will be to replace those retiring from the workforce 

In the Borders, 5,200 job openings are forecast from 2022 to 2025. The replacement requirement is estimated at 4,600 people on top of the 600 extra jobs. Job openings are expected to be concentrated in a small number of industries, with four industries in the Borders forecast to account for 3,000 (58.2 per cent) of the requirement. These are: Human Health and Social Work: 1,000 people; Wholesale and Retail Trade: 900 people; Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: 600 people; Accommodation and Food Service: 500 people.

Moving on to the longer term (2025-2032) the report claims predictions for these years highlight that jobs growth should continue in the Borders.

"However, it is expected that there could be an ongoing requirement for skilled people to fill opportunities created by people leaving the labour market. This feature of the labour market, known as the replacement requirement, is a symptom of the demographic change strategic driver. In the Borders, 11,400 job openings are forecast from 2025 to 2032."

The same four industrial categories will require the lion's share of new or replacement workers.

"Job openings are expected to be concentrated in a small number of industries, with four industries in the Borders forecast to account for 6,500 (56.9 per cent) of the requirement. These are: Human Health and Social Work: 2,100 people; Wholesale and Retail Trade: 2,000 people; Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: 1,400 people; Accommodation and Food Service: 1,000 people."