No economic 'boom' yet from reinstated rail service, study concluded

 BORDERS RAILWAY IN FOCUS 

Although the Borders Railway exceeded expectations in terms of passenger numbers following its opening in 2015, and is achieving its original investment objectives, the £295 million project does not appear to have had a transformational impact on the regions of Midlothian and the Scottish Borders.

This important conclusion from a Department of Transport (DfT) commissioned analysis completed last year runs counter to recent claims of an economic 'boom' for Galashiels following the rebuilding of the 35-mile northern section of the Waverley route.

The 259-page report shows the findings from an in-depth investigation of 15 major transport investment initiatives ranging in size from the Borders Railway up to the Greater Manchester Metrolink and the Jubilee Line Extension. The analysis was undertaken by Cambridge Economic Policy Associates [CEPA], an advisory firm. The study set out to establish whether each project had delivered a transitional impact for local economies.

But although the extensive document has been publicly available since last June, it has received little or no press and media coverage while many politicians and civic leaders appear to be unaware of its existence. A request for sight of the report was made by at least one Scottish MP at a session of the Commons Transport Committee earlier this month.

Key findings from the Borders Railway investigation are presented as follows:

"Employment • Primary research suggests that the Borders Railway had a modest positive impact on employment, as the stations in ‘urban’ and ‘semi-urban’ areas experienced a significant increase in employment following the scheme’s opening relative to comparator areas. 

"Productivity • No evidence of direct productivity impacts found. 

"Housing • New housing is being built in the corridor but so far, the number completed is less than the 10,000 originally envisaged. • An urban expansion is planned around the new station at Shawfair, but as at Spring 2021, only 1,000 of 4,000 new homes had been built. 

"Regeneration • Regeneration was not an objective of this scheme. 

"Environment • User surveys suggest that the railway led to a significant modal shift from car to rail, saving more than an estimated 36,000 annual single car trips."

CEPA explain that the main aim of the Borders Railway was to promote accessibility to and from the Scottish Borders and Midlothian to Edinburgh and the central belt of Scotland, with a particular focus on enabling residents of the Borders and Midlothian to access the Edinburgh labour market.

The Borders Railway has succeeded in improving accessibility between the Scottish Borders, Midlothian and Edinburgh. Commuting has been the most common journey purpose of users of the railway, and Edinburgh the most frequent journey destination, suggesting that the line has supported access to employment opportunities in the capital for residents of the Scottish Borders.

According to the report: "Discussions with stakeholders suggested that the Borders Railway has exceeded expectations in terms of attracting tourism to the Borders region. This may be due to notable publicity efforts when the route opened. 

"However, the evidence suggests that the railway has had limited broader economic impacts. There may have been a positive effect on employment around stations closer to Edinburgh, but there is little evidence that the scheme has had notable effects in terms of productivity, housing or property values. In particular, there has been little construction progress at Shawfair, a new township served by the railway".

CEPA anticipate that one of the key outcomes of the Borders Railway will be to expand Edinburgh’s labour catchment to incorporate the locations on the new line. As with HS1, they expect existing residents in these areas may be able to gain new jobs in Edinburgh where they can be more productive, and these areas may attract new residents. This would increase Edinburgh’s employment density, further improving productivity.

"By becoming part of the Edinburgh labour market catchment, we expect the locations on the new railway line to attract new residents, which may in turn support the development of housing. This would increase the population of the area or prevent what would otherwise have been a reduction in the population."

The analysis suggests that the Borders Railway had a modest positive impact on employment. The areas surrounding the ‘urban’ stations (Brunstane, Newcraighill and Shawfair) and ‘semi-urban’ (Eskbank, Newtongrange and Gorebridge) experienced a significant increase in employment following the opening of the Borders Railway whereas the areas surrounding ‘rural’ stations (Galashiels, Tweedbank and Stow) did not. 

"However, it should be noted that both the impacted and comparator areas for the ‘urban’ and ‘semi-urban’ stations were experiencing an upward trend in employment prior to the opening of the Borders Railway, so it is possible that the gains are due to some other confounding factor that could not be controlled for in the analysis. The Borders Railway “Blueprint for the Future” states that the local authorities identified land to deliver around 24,000 homes in Midlothian and the Scottish Borders by 2024. There is limited evidence to show how many of these have been built – one source suggests that 10,000 new homes had been built as of September 2020."

A section of the report headed Performance Against Investment Objectives comments on each of those objectives and shows the line is achieving on several fronts:

"Promote accessibility to and from the Scottish Borders and Midlothian to Edinburgh and the central belt – Achieving. Large volumes of users were using the service to travel between the Scottish Borders / Midlothian and Edinburgh. While commuting was the most common journey purpose, there were also a significant number of leisure and tourist users and evidence that the line has improved access and encourage people to make additional / new trips which they previously did not make.

"Foster social inclusion by improving services for those without access to a car – Largely achieving. There was strong agreement amongst respondents to the user survey that the railway has enabled them to access opportunities without using the car/only using the car for a portion of the journey. However, while the re-opening of the railway has resulted in improvements in access between the stations, it has also resulted in changes in bus service provision within the study area, most notably the reduction of the X95 service to an hourly service in May 2016.

"Prevent decline in the Borders population by securing ready access to Edinburgh’s labour market – Achieving. Commuting was found to be the most common journey purpose and Edinburgh is the most frequent destination, suggesting that the line has secured access to employment opportunities in the capital for residents of the Scottish Borders and Midlothian. The results also suggest that the improved access opportunities associated with the rail line have influenced people’s residential choices and encouraged in-migration to both Midlothian and the Scottish Borders.

"Create modal shift from the car to public transport – Achieving. The responses to the User Survey suggested that there has been a significant modal shift from car to rail, with the majority of respondents (64 percent) who previously made their trip by another mode stating that they drove all the way to their destination equating to an estimated 36,000 saved annual single car trips from the sample alone."