Borders births below 1,000 for first time

EXCLUSIVE by DOUG COLLIE

The number of births registered in the Scottish Borders fell below the one thousand mark for the first time in 2017 at a time when concerns are growing over the future size of the region's workforce and its ability to cope with an expected skills shortage.

According to official figures there were 989 births and 1,298 deaths recorded last year, the fifth year in which the local "birth rate" has fallen and has failed to even match the number of deaths.

Meanwhile a report published last month by Skills Development Scotland which has yet to receive any media coverage locally warns of issues facing the drive to speed up industrial development and promote economic well-being in the Borders region.

The 50-page document concludes: "One of the main challenges facing the regional economy and labour market over the coming decade (2018-2028) is the forecast decline in the working age population (from 60 per cent to 51 per cent) and accompanying increase in people over retirement age (who are projected to comprise one-third of the total regional population by 2041). 

"This will put pressure on employers looking to recruit staff, which is likely to be further exacerbated by Brexit and the potential implications of this on potentially constraining the supply of labour from the European Union."

Here are the statistics on births and deaths in the Scottish Borders in each of the last five years.

YEAR                             BIRTHS                   DEATHS

2013                                1,138                        1,222

2014                                1,081                        1,335

2015                                1,037                        1,389

2016                                1,005                        1,277

2017                                   989                        1,298

The skills assessment produced by Oxford Economics points up several topics which will, no doubt, soon be occupying the minds of a brand new South of Scotland Enterprise Agency.

According to the report Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area shows GVA in the Scottish Borders in 2018 was £2.1bn, two per cent of total national output (£134.7bn). The Scottish Borders is the smallest of the RSA regions in Scotland in terms its share of national output. 

Pressure on households and Brexit-related uncertainty is forecast to hamper near term growth. GVA growth in the Scottish Borders is forecast to average 1.3 per cent per year between 2018 and 2028. This is below the Scotland rate of 1.7 per cent and the UK average of 1.9 per cent. Growth in the near term is expected to be more muted given the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty on business investment and the continued pressure on household incomes. 

The assessment also shows productivity in the Scottish Borders is below the Scottish average. Productivity is the measure of goods and services produced per unit of labour input. Productivity has been calculated by dividing total regional GVA by total regional employment (measured in jobs). As of 2018, productivity in the Scottish Borders was £40,000, lower than the national average of £47,300. 

Total regional employment (measured as the number of jobs) is estimated to be 52,800 in 2018, an increase of 0.1 per cent on 2017. Economic activity in the Scottish Borders is more concentrated in agriculture than the Scottish average. The largest sectors by employment  are wholesale and retail, human health and social work, and manufacturing, accounting for 16 per cent, 15 per cent and 11 per cent of total regional employment respectively. After manufacturing, agriculture has nearly a 10% share of employment (9.7%) in contrast to the national average of 2%, showing the concentration of this sector within the region.

The report warns: "Employment performance in the Scottish Borders is forecast to lag behind the Scottish average over the next decade. Overall, regional employment has decreased since 2006, driven largely by the decline in the manufacturing sector. There have, however, been other factors driving these decreases, including the recession, and a decline of the public administration and defence sector. Employment is expected to decline gradually, losing a total of 200 jobs between 2018 and 2028, whilst both Scotland and the UK experience growth.

"The expected contraction in employment over the next ten years is underpinned by declines in the manufacturing, agriculture and public administration and defence sectors. There are expected to be 1,400 combined job losses across these three sectors. Most of these losses (900) are expected to come in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to continue its historic decline in the Scottish Borders, as technological improvements reduce the need for labour. Manufacturing’s share of total employment is expected to fall from 11 per cent in 2018 to 9 per cent in 2028."

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