An up-to-date demographic profile of the Scottish Borders shows the average age of the region's residents is now 49.1 years, far in excess of Scotland's average of 42 years with those in the pensionable bracket representing almost a quarter of the region's population.
The latest data from National Records of Scotland covering the period to June 2019 also shows that the number of deaths in the region exceeded births by almost 2,500 yet the number of people living in the area increased due entirely to inward migration.
These figures demonstrate yet again that the local economy will face increasing issues linked to the availability of labour and services for the care of the elderly.
The decline in the working age population has been a continuous problem for many years. The latest report shows that between 2009 and 2019 the number of 0-15 year olds dropped by four per cent with a similar loss in the ranks of 16-64 year olds. Meanwhile the numbers over 65 shot up by 24%.
All of this means 16% of Borderers are under 16 (Scottish average 17%), working age population stands at 59% (Scotland 64%) with 24% of Borders citizens above the age of 65 (national average 19%). The local average age of 49.1 years (Scotland 42 years) has Borders men at 48.5 years and women at 49.5 years.
The overall population for Scottish Borders crept up from 115,270 to 115,510 last year. Ten years ago the number living locally stood at 113,590. Population density is recorded at 24 people per square kilometre for the Borders compared to Scotland's figure of 70 per sq. km.
Migration estimates suggest 2,370 individuals moved to the Borders from other parts of Scotland last year, 1,610 from the rest of the United Kingdom, and 290 from overseas giving a total of 4,260.
According to National Registers of Scotland 3,680 moved in the other direction, 2,170 to other parts of Scotland, 1,180 to the rest of the UK and 330 overseas.
Over the last ten years the total number of Borders births (10,657) compared to the number of deaths (13,011) created a natural population change of minus 2,354.
The replacement of the ageing workforce is likely to be a key issue for the new South of Scotland Enterprise agency.
A 2019 skills assessment of the South of Scotland (Scottish Borders and Dumfries & Galloway) by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) outlined the labour force requirements in the ten years to 2029.
SDS said "Whilst employment is forecast to stay the same from 2019 to
2029, the need to replace workers leaving the labour market will create 39,700
opportunities. To fill these jobs, and others, there is a forecast requirement
for 36,700 people in the region from 2019 to 2029.
"The difference between the
people and job requirements is due to some people having more than one job, for
example someone who has two part-time jobs."
The assessment forecasts that by occupation, the greatest number of people will be required in: Clerical and Service Elementary Occupations, 4,800 people; Sales
Occupations, 4,600 people; Trades, Plant and Storage Elementary Occupations,
4,300 people; Teaching and Research Professions, 3,700 people; and Skilled
Agricultural Trades, 2,600 people.
"Job losses in the South of Scotland are also forecast in some
sectors, notably in production sectors and the public sector. Manufacturing is
the sector forecast to have the greatest number of job losses from 2019 to 2029.
During the forecast period a decline of 1,800 jobs is anticipated. This reflects
the general trend of more capital intensive and higher value-added activity in
the sector, which requires less labour-intensive methods.
"Employment is also forecast to fall overall in the South of
Scotland’s public services sector with Public Administration and Defence forecast
to contract by 600 jobs over the forecast period due to continued pressure on
public finances.In the South of Scotland, 39,800 job openings are forecast
from 2019 to 2029. These will arise almost completely due to the replacement
requirement, which will create 39,700 openings."
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